Sep 14 Weekend View

After going through all my usual news letter writers and observing the market action over the last week, I am left with the conclusion that the probability remains that we are going to see a major sell-off in the blue chip indexes with the US REIT market primed to follow in step.

I am expecting to see some short term strength in the EUR and AUD or said better USD weakness. This should last a week or so and then we should see continued Dollar strength.

I remain well positioned to the short side, with my major shorts being the US but I am short UK and SA REITs as well. My only long remains Australian REITs which I believe offer relative value.

South Africa continues to hold up despite the fact that its currency has recently faltered, its economy is stuttering and emerging markets in general have been sold aggressively. I am convinced South Africa is a bi-polar investment case. I will describe more fully another time.