AS IF IT NEVER HAPPENED

I am reading through one headline after another putting forward a bullish case. In many instances the euphoria is even worse than pre the crash because now, punters have the ability to say that the crash is behind us and has set the market up for a prolonged bull market.

Even the not so sanguine investors are saying the carry trade brought about by the ridiculously low rates in the US and other parts of the world is fuelling the fire. Of course they are right about this but it is a bubble and every bubble bursts.

I have been a professional money manager for 8 years and I have read more books on market history than many people will read in their entirety throughout their lifetime, and I know with certainty how this will end. Only I believe the tears on the next leg down will be more like floods as people realize not only how greedy they were to risk so much in the face of so much risk, but more how dumb they were not to have realized it.

The greed part people will be able to deal with, because it is part of the inner struggle that we all face throughout our lives, but I believe the feeling of depression caused by being plain old stupid will take much much longer to heal.

I just read that JP Morgan has lifted their pay freeze, instituted at the height of the crisis. You have 3 banks in the US paying more than $30bn in bonuses for this year when in March everyone thought the world as we knew it was over.

Come in lets get real here, except for the ever growing % of US unemployed how many of us really felt this recession. Hardly come on be truthful, it was more felt at arms length via lower share portfolio's or lower pricing in our homes but how many people were out and out desperado's?

If history is anything to go by this painfull experience is what is needed to cure the ill effects of blatantly mismanaged companies and governments. I don't wish this hardship on anyone and the more I think about it the sadder I become because I am realizing how many more people will have to experience this because of the lack of truly honourable leadership.

If you want a career that will pay have an endless supply of customers then study psychology or psychiatry, or if you are a dumbo like me buy psychiatirc drug manufacturers.

Lastly, remember that no party continues forever, and if you have been lucky enough to enjoy this one, why not quit while you are ahead and you still have your sanity.