The Time is Nigh

You may be saying what is this bloke smoking, but every now and again a trader gets that gut feeling that things are about to work out the way you "feel".

Tonight is one such moment. I am sitting in the same study I was in on the 10th January feeling "confused" but bearish. Tonight I sit less confused but bearish.

Let me try and place things in perspective I made the following post on the 10/1/2006:

have just come back from vacation, it is the start of a new year, I have a brand new fund that needs to be invested, I am sitting in my study watching the markets and I haven't a clue as what to do.

The greatest minds in the world tell us that the US is sick, and by sick I don't mean the flu. The US is infected with a terminal disease that can only be cured with painfull surgery, and strict observance of a health programme, anything else will lead to death.

Let us not blame this on the Americans alone, a culture of spending all of tomorrows earnings today has pervaded most of the western world, and this increases the chance of major "illness" spreading across the globe in an epidemic the like the world has never seen before.

It is against this backdrop that I ponder the weightings and directional balance of the virgin fund I have been blessed to consumate.

I will end tonights session by saying that I have maintained a bearish view on the markets for over 3 years in the face of a bear market rally, the "pain" has been severe and the error humbling. However, I stand tall and steadfast in my view that we are indeed in a bear market rally, and the time is nigh for a monumental correction in the markets that although painfull and devestating for the world should provide bountiful profits for our new fund.

"Stay the Course"

So why am I so confident this time.

Firstly, I believe nothing has changed from my observations back then, secondly the market having gone up probably makes my argument back then stronger. Finally, I am a strong believer in the Elloitt Wave Principle and the setups across so many markets are perfect. Something that hasn't "really" been the case. I say this because all the previous setups were never classic and were chased out of fear of missing "all the move".

I am a lot wiser than I was at the beginning of the year, although I must say I have a long way still to go.

Just to conclude with a personal note.

To be a trader / hedge fund manager requires nothing less than committment, passion, resolve, insight and all the above again.