Tuesday, January 10, 2006

US REIT COMMENTS

GRT has a clean 5 waves down, a great short, however, 1 little blip up to come.
HOV is really bearish
EOP is possibly a 1-2, 1-2, alternatively we have a bullish wave 5 to come
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25 comments:

Mickson said...

HCN looks like it might have topped

January 10, 2006 8:00 AM
Mickson said...

HR is also looking very soft
JOE bearish
MAC has a final blast then topped
NXL strong sell
SUI needs to be looked at
UDR is a LONG buy on pull back

January 10, 2006 8:12 AM
Mickson said...

Some comments on the UK Europe stocks:
BVS.L is blowing off but i still wouldn't short it yet.
My keenest short would be MVC in Spain but the wave count is a concern. As a relative trade I would look to be short this stock relative to another European counter.

January 11, 2006 4:19 AM
Mickson said...

AFR looks like a clear short
AIV is a potential short term buy following a pull-back.
Keep an eye on DHI as it seems like a 5 down and is now at the 78% retracement.

January 11, 2006 5:17 AM
Mickson said...

PKY was just given an underperform by the Harris team.
Technically this looks like a disaster.
AFR needs to be shorted.
AIV if I need to go long is an option

January 13, 2006 8:06 AM
Mickson said...

Trades to be done today.
Long AIV, ELS, TOL, CBL
Short GGP, RYL, HOV, SPG
GRT, HCP,
Sit tight on AFR for now
ASN, AVB seems to have a bit of legs in the short term.
HTG is a short term long
MLS a medium term countertrend bounce is coming.

January 14, 2006 1:17 AM
Mickson said...

Please must sell MAC tomorrow it has a clear 5 waves done in the 5th wave.
Selling strength.

January 16, 2006 6:39 AM
Mickson said...

VNO is also one to consider shorting.
Toys R US giving problems.

January 16, 2006 6:39 AM
Mickson said...

REIT Yields Fall Below 10-Yr Tsy, Sparking Selloff Talk (DOW JONES NEWSWIRES) By JANET MORRISSEY January 13, 2006 11:49 a.m. Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES NEW YORK -- For only the third time in more than 10 years, real estate investment trusts are generating yields below that of the 10-year Treasury note, sparking talk of a sector selloff. Equity REIT dividend yields currently average 4.31%, according to the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts. This is below the 4.37% yield of the 10-year Treasury. The last two times REIT yield spreads turned negative - in April 1994 and December 1996 - the stocks declined. In April 1994, REITs treaded water before falling 9.2% by April 1995, said Bank of America analyst Ross Nussbaum. When spreads turned negative in December 1996, the REIT sector actually rose for about 12 months before plummetting 32% over a two-year period, he said. Nussbaum acknowledged that other issues also played a role in the 1997 selloff - in particular the investor shift away from old economy stocks and into technology and media stocks. However, he said the negative spreads also contributed to the sector's decline. "History does not always repeat itself, but we see risk to valuations by mid-year," Nussbaum said. "We believe the negative yield spread should at least sound some alarm bells." Nussbaum said REITs will likely continue to show gains in January and February, given the group's expected solid fourth-quarter results. However, he said "we believe the stocks will ultimately give back the year-to-date gains (and perhaps more) as investors revisit valuations, which now appear at best fully valued and at worst stretched on a number of different metrics." Equity REITs have generated total returns, including dividends, of 5.8% so far in 2006.

January 17, 2006 6:20 AM
Mickson said...

Short PSA and long PSB for conservative pair (PSA owns 40% of PSB)

January 19, 2006 5:56 AM
Mickson said...

CBL could still be a long?
ELS I think we are going into 3 of 5
EOP I maintain my view that we have topped
HOV I am sticking with my count that we are completing 2 in a shallow bounce
HR is looking technically weak, we have just done 3 in a 1-2 1-2 setup
HTG a new high still to come
JOE looks like completing a wave 2 bounce
MAC continues to look very vulnerable
MLS start preparing in the next few days to go long this stock as it is in the process of completing 5 waves down.
NXL looks technically sick
REG looks like it has topped
WCI looks sick

January 19, 2006 5:42 PM
Mickson said...

CBL could still be a long?
ELS I think we are going into 3 of 5
EOP I maintain my view that we have topped
HOV I am sticking with my count that we are completing 2 in a shallow bounce
HR is looking technically weak, we have just done 3 in a 1-2 1-2 setup
HTG a new high still to come
JOE looks like completing a wave 2 bounce
MAC continues to look very vulnerable
MLS start preparing in the next few days to go long this stock as it is in the process of completing 5 waves down.
NXL looks technically sick
REG looks like it has topped
WCI looks sick

January 19, 2006 5:42 PM
Mickson said...

Short AVB at the market open. The stock is up 11% and is fully valued
ASN is a good pair trade

January 28, 2006 12:39 AM
Mickson said...

If you are looking for a relative long CDR is a possible buy, havent looked at chart.
EOP short position need to add to.

The homebuilders look finished, more selling to come.

February 03, 2006 6:57 PM
Mickson said...

Real Estate Industry Weekly Insights
Implied Dividend Growth: The Final Cautious Signal?
Our initial September 2005 dividend discount model (DDM)
report attempted to apply that valuation metric to the REITs in
order to compare the dividend growth being implied by REIT
stocks today to that implied over the last ten years. At the
time of the report, we determined the 3.2% long-term dividend
growth rate implied by REIT prices at the time, while high
versus the historical average of 1.9%, was well within
statistical norms and actually quite reasonable compared to
our own expectations for long term REIT dividend growth. At
the time, this conclusion differed from the other major
valuation metrics we use, such as historical yield spreads
versus bond alternatives and FFO multiples, which each
suggesting that the REITs were more overvalued. Looking
back over the five-plus months that followed our original DDM
report, its conclusions appear to have been reasonably valid -
the REITs have outperformed the S&P 500 by 240 basis
points since our report was published.
So what does the metric indicate now? This week we
revisited the DDM to see if anything had changed over the
last five-plus months. Our analysis suggests things have
changed quite materially. Since our original report, the 10-
year Treasury yield has changed very little, and is now at
almost identical levels to where it stood in September 2005.
However over that same period, the REIT rally has continued
unabated, pushing the RMZ over 900 — a level that implies
4+% long-term dividend growth. While still at absolute levels
that might be plausible, given 6% historical (but shrinking)
dividend growth, the implied growth rate is now at a wide
statistical deviation from the historical mean, suggesting
REITs are now as overvalued as they have ever been on
this basis. The implied growth rate is now only a few bps
from its all-time high since 1990 (see Exhibit 1).
What does the DDM say about future growth? Another
way to look at the DDM is to examine REIT prices as a
function of the value of current dividends in perpetuity plus the
present value of all expected dividend growth (similar to a
residual income model). Applying this methodology, we found
that since 1990, the value of future growth implied by today’s
REIT prices has never been higher. Said differently, given
that projecting dividend growth is more risky than projecting
that the dividend will be sustained at current levels, there is
more risk embedded in REIT prices today than ever
before. Moreover, a physical examination of the historical
dividend implied growth chart would seem to indicate that,
when at peak levels, REIT valuations appear to correct
themselves quite quickly. This data suggests that the final
curtain on the REITs’ long-lasting encore performance may
soon come down. We offer a few key conclusions from our
implied dividend growth analysis:
• REIT implied dividend growth is now 4.05%, versus
the historical average of 1.95%. In January alone,
implied dividend growth increased over 75 basis points.
This level is only 6 basis points below the historical high
of 4.11%. Today’s implied growth rate is nearing two
standard deviations above the historical mean, which
suggests that the overvaluation is approaching
statistically significant levels. Remember, higher implied
growth is not the product of low interest rates — in an
efficient market, valuations should adjust when interest
rates change to imply the same growth rate.
Exhibit 1
Implied Dividend Growth Near Historical High
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1/90
12/90
11/91
10/92
9/93
8/94
7/95
6/96
5/97
4/98
3/99
2/00
1/01
12/01
11/02
10/03
9/04
8/05
Implied Growth (%)
Avg. -1 SD
Avg. -2 SD
Avg. +1 SD
Avg. +2 SD
Source: Morgan Stanley Research
• Declines in implied dividend growth would likely
result in underperformance versus the S&P 500. We
examined the six periods in which the implied dividend
growth rates declined for the REITs. They included time
periods in 1990, 1991, 1994-1995, 1997-1998, 2000-
2001 and in 2002. While the results are ultimately
inconclusive, we note that REITs underperformed the
S&P 500 in each in the four instances of declining implied
dividend growth prior to 2000. Furthermore, in three of
those four instances, REITs underperformed the S&P
500 materially (see Exhibit 2). The notable exception
occurred in 2001 and 2002 which was heavily influenced
by the bursting of the tech bubble and investor demand
for hard assets. Interestingly, though, all six implied
growth corrections occurred when interest rates were
3
M O R G A N S T A N L E Y E Q U I T Y R E S E A R C H
February 3, 2006
Real Estate Investment Trusts
falling, a key difference to our current expectations for a
correction while interest rates are rising.
Exhibit 2
Relative Total Return Versus S&P 500 During
Implied Growth Corrections
-9.6%
-2.3%
-25.6%
-33.1%
33.0%
13.0%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
April 90 -
Oct 90
May 91 -
Dec 91
Sept 94 -
Nov 95
Sept 97 -
Dec 98
July 00 -
Dec 01
Mar 02 -
Oct 02
Source: Morgan Stanley Research
• The proportion of today’s REIT prices attributable to
future dividend growth has never been higher.
Current prices suggest that over half (51%) of REIT
prices are attributable to future expected dividend growth.
This compares to a historical average of 21% to 41%
when we first conducted our analysis in September 2005.
We would argue that the greater reliance on future
growth not only suggests that valuations have expanded
too much, but has also significantly increases the risk
profile (and the sensitivity to interest rates) going forward.
Exhibit 3
The Expected Dividend Growth Component of REIT
Prices Has Never Been Higher
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1/90
9/90
5/91
1/92
9/92
5/93
1/94
9/94
5/95
1/96
9/96
5/97
1/98
9/98
5/99
1/00
9/00
5/01
1/02
9/02
5/03
1/04
9/04
5/05
1/31/2006
Wtd Avg. Price of REITs Perpetuity Value of Dividends
Market Price of REITs
Perpetuity Value of In-Place Dividends
Value of Expected Dividend Growth
Market Implies Negative Long-
Term Growth for REITs
Higher Growth Component =
Higher Interest Rate Sensitivity
Source: Morgan Stanley Research
• Relative to the S&P500, REIT implied growth rates
appear particularly stretched. Since we base our
industry call on return expectations versus the broader
market, we believe it is important to assess the relative
implied growth rates. Currently, the implied long-term
dividend growth rate for the S&P 500 is 6.24%, and while
below its historical average of 7.28%, is still well within
statistical norms. However, when compared to REITs
(see Exhibit 4) the spread between the S&P 500 and
REIT implied dividend growth rates has shrunk to
historical lows, and has reached well beyond statistically
significant levels. The current spread between the S&P
500 and REIT implied dividend growth is now only 218
basis points, versus the long-term average of 534 basis
points.
Exhib

February 06, 2006 8:31 PM
Mickson said...

REG looks like an option for a long in the shopping centre space.

February 06, 2006 8:43 PM
Mickson said...

MAC is a sell.
JOE has collapsed could sell any meaningful bounce
RYL bounce must sell

February 09, 2006 4:25 AM
Mickson said...

TOL cover long at the soonest bounce we are in free-fall

February 09, 2006 4:25 AM
Mickson said...

ASN, EQR is worth a short from an overbought point of view.

February 14, 2006 11:37 PM
Mickson said...

VTR looks like a sell on an EW basis.
CBL looks like a long on an EW basis.
I am long VTR so must give this count serious consideration.

March 13, 2006 11:07 PM
Mickson said...

Must sell ELS long

May 18, 2006 6:38 PM
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