Thursday, February 19, 2009

WHAT SEEMS LIKE AN ETERNITY


I have stated in my last 2 newsletters that I expect the November lows to be broken.
Well almost 3 months later we are about to witness this happening. No matter how firm ones conviction there is always the fear of being wrong. From my perspective I was never planning on betting the farm on this trade as the risk reward for being short this trade in size didnt permit excessive risk taking.

The question of course is how much further will this wave take us. In markets like Australia we have been beneath November for some time so the possibility of Aussie leading the recovery is quite high. This is the reason why I continue to purchase the Australian REITs despite the shocking news coming daily from their most recent quarter financial releases.
I continue to level out our short position as I anticipate a massive buying opportunity as a medium term bottom is formed. So in short what I am saying is that although this last leg of the selloff has good profit potential the risk of not being well positioned in the coming weeks for the mother of all buying opportunities is the basis for my continued buying into weakness.

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