HISTORIC WEEK

By Hochberg EWI.

 

This was truly a historic week for the stock market. The Dow and S&P ended the week higher, with each index gaining over 2½ percent. But today's NYSE volume of 1.03 billion shares traded was the lowest in two months, since April 12, and yesterday's volume was the second lowest for the month of June. Incredibly, according to newsletter colleague Peter Eliades (stockmarketcycles.com), yesterday's closing TRIN of 0.15 was the lowest single-day TRIN reading in over 58 years and the eighth lowest overall in the history of the past 70 years. And today's intraday NYSE Tick of +1644 is a 23-year record extreme back to 1987 when our data series begins. Two up days in a row on lighter volume is bearish enough on its own. But when one of those days has a record TRIN and the other one has a record TICK, it's got to be one for the record books of bearish set-ups.

THE GREAT TIMING PARADOX

What is becoming clearer to me is the fact that the market can be more accurately forecasted than one thinks. The problem is that the time it takes to manifest can be less accurately forecasted.

I guess that is one of the main reasons why so many professional investors/traders fail. The reason is because they are continuously trying to satisfy their various stakeholders in the short term and of course those businesses at the early stage of growth need early success to pay their bills.