Wednesday, January 11, 2006

The Lonely Thoughts of a Hedge Fund Manager.

I have just come back from vacation, it is the start of a new year, I have a brand new fund that needs to be invested, I am sitting in my study watching the markets and I haven't a clue as what to do.

The greatest minds in the world tell us that the US is sick, and by sick I don't mean the flu. The US is infected with a terminal disease that can only be cured with painfull surgery, and strict observance of a health programme, anything else will lead to death.

Let us not blame this on the Americans alone, a culture of spending all of tomorrows earnings today has pervaded most of the western world, and this increases the chance of major "illness" spreading across the globe in an epidemic the like the world has never seen before.

It is against this backdrop that I ponder the weightings and directional balance of the virgin fund I have been blessed to consumate.

I will end tonights session by saying that I have maintained a bearish view on the markets for over 3 years in the face of a bear market rally, the "pain" has been severe and the error humbling. However, I stand tall and steadfast in my view that we are indeed in a bear market rally, and the time is nigh for a monumental correction in the markets that although painfull and devestating for the world should provide bountiful profits for our new fund.

"Stay the Course"

Tuesday, January 10, 2006

US REIT COMMENTS

GRT has a clean 5 waves down, a great short, however, 1 little blip up to come.
HOV is really bearish
EOP is possibly a 1-2, 1-2, alternatively we have a bullish wave 5 to come